Do you have any specific suggestions? Perhaps something like oil, energy, food, basic services, electronics, real estate, financial products?
Are you claiming that your use of the attribute “stable” for a market does not include the aspect of the market not being volatile? If yes, I find that at least slightly misleading.
Sure, the data security problem and the young age of bitcoin might be the most dominant reasons for its lack of ubiquitous acceptance, for now. In the long run, however, I think that the factors I’ve written about will gain in relative importance and determine the rate of acceptance of new cryptocurrencies, once crypto has been generally accepted and the security issues have been dealt with to a sufficient degree. Perhaps GeoFlux might be seen as preferable currency in 20 years or so.
Is that so? I think this is a key question. Having your preferred store of value and currency of exchange being one and the same thing initially sounds like a preferred solution, and pretty simple. But if the ideal store of value and the ideal currency of exchange differ from one another, it would make sense to have them as separate entities which can be optimized for their respective function independently.
While thinking about this issue, I am realizing that people want more than a “store” of value. They want their value to increase, ideally reliably, quickly, and without effort. So, perhaps we also need to think about what the best safe automatic investment could be. If we aimed for really good safety, we might want to have something like “world economic growth dividend shares”, which might be approximated by a portfolio of government bonds. Still, that doesn’t seem better than having some amount in a universally accepted, non-inflationary currency. The value of that currency would increase with economic growth anyway, if the amount of currency in circulation doesn’t increase. If the amount of circulation decreases (non-uniformly), there is the risk that you are the one who is losing some of that currency, so the safety requirement is violated here. My guess is that bitcoin will be pretty close to being an ideal store of value, if the safety issues are addressed, and if fluctuations of the value of bitcoin become minimal.
I’m not trying to beat bitcoin as long-term storage of value here. But I’m trying to create a better currency of exchange. What’s most important for a currency is its universal acceptance. A good currency needs to be easy to handle, and everyone should accept economic transactions in that currency. Let’s assume that bitcoin became trivially easy to handle. If cryptocurrencies also became nearly universally accepted, would there be a reason to reject any particular cryptocurrency? I think there are three classes of such reasons:
- Technological capabilities: Some cryptocurrencies have useful features that others don’t have. Flux currencies support continuous value transfer, for example (well, at least in theory).
- Design features: How is the currency created? What mechanisms affect the currency? Inflationary currencies, and currencies with unconditional demurrage wouldn’t seem preferable, everything else being the same. Proof of work can be considered as waste of energy.
- Social considerations: By using a specific currency, I am buying into the value network of the users of that currency, thus validating the value that is held by the members of that value network. People can have preferences which value networks they might want to support. If they have strong dislikes about certain value networks, they might reject its preferred currency.
Social considerations might feel week as an overall factor, but they are present. Some people prefer to use local currencies for such reasons, for example. Also, there are ethical banks, whose existence at least points to social reasons having a real economic impact. Currently, people usually strongly support the early investors when buying into a cryptocurrency. That can be seen as justified, or as necessary evil, or as inherently unfair – depending on your preferred point of view.
At the very least, a reputation-based currency would at least have stronger social validation within the reputation network that uses that currency. If there is a global reputation network, the question whether people accept a currency coupled to that network breaks down to whether they like the idea of a reputation based economy or not. It’s not trivial why people should value a reputation based economy over a conventional economy, but the argument that a first encourages digital abundance, and generally reduced costs, should at least convince the majority that it’s a really good idea to prefer reputation currencies.
Could that possible preference for a currency that is in line with the idea of a reputation based economy be strong enough for people to reject bitcoin or other currencies? I guess so. Is that likely to become a mainstream attitude? Probably not. Still, the relative currency preferences of people could come with price differences amongst those currencies. Merchants can provide discounts on certain network specific currencies, for example (perhaps in the hope to increase their reputation when they give discounts for a specific reputation currency).
Maybe the strongest arguments in favour of using reputation currencies are that they are futuristic and social and drive the movement towards digital abundance. Those might not be reasons that are based on simple rationality as economic actors, but they are rooted in the real social and psychological nature of human beings. Empirically, humans are not homo oeconomicus, and neither do I think that they should be – at the very least because homo oeconomicus is too much of a simplification. Still, the point about digital abundance can be seen as argument from individual long-term economic rationality, or altruistic economic (super)rationality. In any case, I see sufficient reasons for people to prefer GeoFlux over bitcoin in many circumstances.
The proof is in the future.