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Second Cold War

(Michael Hrenka) #41

I think it’s important to think about whether trade relations will be really much affected by the second Cold War. After all, both blocs still use market economies and would suffer from decreasing trade for political reasons. Trade would probably suffer, but it would be maintained. There’s no reason why two neighbouring countries could not belong to different blocs and still be trade partners to some degree. The second Cold War is not about direct military confrontation, but about ideological and political dominance. Both blocs want to outcompete each other, and prove that their own system is better than the other.

Sure, the USA could try to invade Canada, but what would it gain from that? Such a war would be very expensive for little gain. Also, such direct wars involving industrialized nations are unlikely, because they might actually trigger a nuclear war between new military alliances aligned with both blocs.

I think Canada will join the X bloc, because Canada is really quite forward thinking. They won’t want to be effectively governed by Washington D.C. Instead, they might try a strategy of political appeasement by driving a more moderate X course than Brazil or Iceland.

About Islam and Muslim traditions: I don’t see why their moderate forms would be less compatible with X policies than moderate forms of Christianity, for example. Strict forms of Christianity or Islam wouldn’t be really compatible with democracy or capitalism, I think. But Turkey is secular enough to give progressive policies a chance. Also, Muslim countries generally hate the USA, so they might want to join the X bloc for that reason alone, even if they will adopt X policies in a somewhat careful way.

(João Luz) #42

You’re probably right. Let’s see how this more moderate canadian X would be like:

  • It will be based on reputation economy and decentralization, just like normal X.
  • It will probably operate under a representative democracy with some reforms, like Brazil.
  • It will employ measures that facilitate trade with non-X nations.
  • Canada will refrain from participating in most of the X Bloc’s collective initiatives, like ICCIP or some important trade agreement.

Yeah, I think progressive policies do have a chance in Turkey, but I think it’s important to keep in mind that their secularism is mostly motivated by a desire to join the European Union. When the EU collaspes and splits between X countries and centralist countries islamist parties will probably become more popular in Turkey.

That’s very interesting. During the first cold war there was a prominent Islamic socialist movement, maybe we can create some kind of “Islamic X” (or IslamX) for our future scenario.

So, how would IslamX be like?

  • It would employ traditional X principles like Reputation economy and decentralization together with some moderate enforcement of the Sharia Law.
  • It would be a socially conservative form of X, rejecting many of western X’s liberal aspects.
  • It would emphasize Arab, Persian and Turkish nationalism according to the region.
  • It would be very harsh on it’s crictics of American imperialism.

(Michael Hrenka) #43

It looks like we already have lots of good material in this post. It would be good if we could arrange all of this in the wiki, but I’m still unsure about whether to use wiki-threads in this forum or an external wiki for that purpose. Do you have any preference in that regard?

(João Luz) #44

I think an external wiki would be better, since it looks more professional, but I know you’ve been having trouble setting up a functional Fractal Future Wiki and, unfortunately, I know almost nothing about that stuff myself.

So, I guess we could use wiki-threads for a while and than try to come up with a better solution.

(Michael Hrenka) #45

I have pondered the wiki problem far and wide and came to the conclusion that properly setting up a DokuWiki would be the best solution, for various reasons. I’ve got some idea about how to do this the best way. In a few weeks, at the latest, there should be a properly functioning nice wiki. :sunny:

(João Luz) #46

So, let’s continue this timeline. I opted for copying the text we’d already written to this post instead of editting the previous post. This way we know that the last version of the timeline is always on the bottom of the thread.

  • **2017:**The Pirate Party of Iceland wins the elections, forming a coalation government with the Bright Future party. Citizinship is granted to Edward Snowden and the parliament starts seriously discussing copyrights reform.
  • 2018: The majority parties of Iceland promote an initiative in which the deputies decide their vote on a certain policy according to the results a a referendum organized through electronic means. Popular participation surprisingly high.
  • 2019: The first copyrights reform laws are approved by the Icelandic parliament. Although they are not very radical, those laws make Iceland the most liberal country in world regarding copyright issues. This leads many pirate websites to set there their domains.
  • Elections are held in Greece. After failling in the task nof renegotiating public debt, the SYRIZA government promisses that, if reelectet, it will take Greece out of the Euro. They win the elections by a small margin.
  • 2020: Edward Snowden is named head of the Icelandic intelligence. He starts a campaingn to protect Iceland from CIA and NSA, who try to depose the Pirate Party government.
  • The EU cuts off all financial aid to Greece and starts an embargo. The greek government turns to Russia and China for help, quickly shifting into their sphere of influence.
  • 2021: After reelecting the Pirate government, Iceland anounces a program of economic reforms which aims to turn the country’s economy into a reputation economy. The reforms advance shyly but effectively.
  • 2022: Edward Snowden prevents and exposes a massive NSA operation against the Icelandic government. The United States are firmly condemned by the international community and promise to refrain from attempting other operations like that.
  • 2024: Peak fracking happens in the USA. It’s the end of cheap oil for the USA. From now on, oil prices are steeply on the rise, because the rest of the world can’t compensate either.
  • 2025: Iceland formally transiotions to a mainly direct democracy. The Democratic Intelligence system is constitutionally adopted to perform public polls.
  • A Hurricane devastates New York and most of the US east coast, leaving many key economic areas inoperable.
  • Suddenly rising oil prices globally cause economic pessimism. Everything becomes more expensive. Banks become less eager to lend money. Corporation profits crash. To compensate, governments start printing money like crazy.
  • 2026: Hyperinflation of the US dollar and the Euro. China must follow the hyperinflationary course in order to sell its products to the USA and Europa at reasonable prices. Global mistrust in conventional currencies makes people opt into cryptocurrencies in masses. Most non-X countries try to outlaw cryptocurrencies, because they undermine their own power. The conventional economy crashes hard. Those who use cryptocurrencies manage to stand more or less afloat. Everything else is massively screwed due to the massive economic crisis.
  • A Massive earthquake happens in California. The US government confesses its difficulty in dealing with natural catastrophes and economic ressession at the same time.
  • 2027: The conventional economy is in free fall with most governments being unable to react appropriately. Unemployment reaches unprecedented levels. Conventional social security systems are failing. This leads to widespread protests. Many people lose everything due to sudden unemployment and the collapse of social security systems. Only emergency foot stamp and housing programmes stave off outright starvation and revolution. Cryptocurrencies are illegal in non-X countries and many people get imprisoned for using them. The black market based on cryptocurrencies is booming nevertheless, because it’s much less affected by the general economic malaise.
  • 2028: Movimento X is founded in Brazil, promoting a set of radical reform inspired by the policies of the Icelandic government. The party grows extraordirarily fast.
  • Some countries have to default on their (foreign) debt, because their economies have eroded too much during the crisis. Government programs stop working. The situation for the unemployed gets worse. Private, network based charity steps in to provide some relief. The problem is that this charity is illegal, because it’s based on cryptocurrencies. People start revolting about the leaders of the charities being arrested.
  • Massive protests in Turkey force the government to step down. New elections are quickly held and end with the victory of the Peoples’s Democratic Party.
  • In the US, republican senator Ronald Mackenzie is elected president by an historically large margin. Mackenzie’s campaign was supported by most of the country’s large corporate entities. Crictics speak of electoral fraud and intimidation and some citizins claim they have been coerced to vote for Mackenzie by the corporations they work for.
  • President Mackenzie dismissis all these accusations and some of the most prominent crictis are arrested. Force is used to put an end to the wave of protests that had been devastating the country for the past few months. Similar measures are taken by the governments of Russia, China and most of the countries under their influence.
  • 2029: Anticipated elections in Sweden have surprising results. Not only the Pirate party has its best result ever, acheiving a pretty signifficant representations, but also the transhumanist party elects its first deputy. In the following years, simillar results are obtained in Norway and Finland. Scandinavia is finally revolting against the status quo.
  • 2030: Massive protests happen in Brazil, forcing the president to resign and call for anticipated elections. Movimento X wins those elections and it’s leader, congressmen Marcus Oliveira, becomes president of the the country.
  • Oliveira anounces radical economic reforms. Cryptocurrencies are legalized,a modest Universal Basic Income is established and the government starts a fund to support small enterprises.
  • 2031: In just one year, the economic policies of the brazillian government have proved thei worth. Most moderate countries start adopting similiar policies.
  • X-inspired coalations triumph in all three Scandinavian countries. The new governments sign cooperation protocols with each others, Brazil and Turkey. The X Bloc is born out of an improbable economic alliance.
  • 2032: The United States, Russia an China introduce legal cryptocurrencies.
  • President Mackenzie anounces the creation of the Federal Workforce Distribution Bureau (FWDB), which has the authority to force people to work in certain corporation or public service where they are needed. Russia and China adopt similar measures.
  • Argentina and Venezuela elect their first X governments.
  • 2033: A new constitution, which consecrates X ideals, is approved in Brazil. The Federal election system is reformed using Democracy 2.1 and limited forms of direct democary are adopted in a local level.
  • Bolivia, Colombia, Chile and Peru join the X Bloc.
  • The government of Egypt anounces a set of moderate X-like reforms, justifying them with basis on islamic principles. They are soon followed by other Arab countries. This is the beginning of the IslamX movement.
  • 2034: Large american corporations are finally recovering from depression, mainly thanks to the efforts of FWDB.
  • Despite the economic recovery life conditions are still hazardous for many people, salaries are low, slums are growing in the big cities and public helthcare is inexistent.
  • Portugal and Spain elect X-governments.
  • 2035: The United Sates constitution is amended so that president Mackenzie can run for a third mandate. He wins the elections by a large margin.
  • Another large ilegal operation by the american secret services is exposed. As a response, the X bloc lauches the International Co-operative Counter Inteligenge Program (ICCIP).
  • Iran anounces a set consitutional reforms which make the country more democratic. They insitute an universal basic income and start transitioning to a reputation economy. The purpose of these changes is to bring the country closer to the X Bloc, in order to defend it from the Americans.
  • 2036: A network of universities and research centers, all of them from the X Bloc, start an historical project with the objective of mapping all existing synapses in the human brain. Despite the monumentality of the project, recent developments in that area had lead experts to belive that it was possible to create a fully sentient neural computer by the end of the decade. The network ensures that the intent of the project is peacefull, but many people, especially in the C Bloc fear the potential use of AGI’s for espionage.
  • This fear leads DARPA (the United States Militairy research branch) to start a similar project, with the support of Russia, China and all the other C-nations. An arms’ race to AGI begins.
  • 2037: The ICCIP injects many millions of dollars in the brain-mapping project, becoming it’s most signifficant supporter. Scientists and analysts all around the world mourn the fact that the project’s main purpose is now bellical instead of scientific.
  • CIA and NSA instensify their recruitment programs and start greatly upgrading their technology. The secret services of Russia and China do the same thing.

To be continued

(Michael Hrenka) #47

That’s nice, but now that we’ve got a wiki, we can copy this timeline to the wiki directly and focus on discussing changes to it here in the forum.

Please try making an account on the Fractal Future Wiki to see whether you can actually use it. Note that the registration email might take a few minutes to arrive. If this works, you can read the syntax page to find out how to create new pages (in this context they should be in the “fractal_cosmos:” namespace, but don’t worry if you get it wrong, I can still move pages to the right locations as wiki admin).

This may also be of interest to @Maximo_Ramallo and @guillefix :smiley:

(João Luz) #48

You’re right. We should use the wiki now. I’ll create an account.

(João Luz) #49

Te password I received is not working

(Michael Hrenka) #50

Thanks for telling me about that. I will see what I can do to fix this issue.

(Michael Hrenka) #51

An article I’ve read recently perhaps puts a new spin on the Cyberwar / Second Cold War:

Such a war would create strong incentives to switch to formally correct code-design. The same goes for AI-security concerns.