Nice, nanotechnology and atomically precise manufacturing are certainly key technologies for the future, so it makes a lot of sense to start taking a look at them. My approach here is to take a look at different technologies and when they will be introduced. For each technology I suggest three dates, which denote:
- Experimental use: The technology is able to be applied in bleeding edge laboratories, but not very much outside of them.
- Mainstream use: The technology has reached mass markets and is used frequently. It’s not perfected yet, but it’s good enough to be used widely.
- Perfection: At this stage there isn’t much room for improvement for this technology. It’s about as good as it gets. About anyone has access to it and it’s rather cheap.
Here are the different technologies:
DNA origami machines (2015, 2030, 2040): Functional DNA strands shaped into very specific forms to fulfil certain functions like detection of substances, medicine delivery, transportation of substances, and so on. Nothing self-replicating, of course, and no real intelligence, but simple operation on the level of molecular biology.
Atomic printers (2030, 2045, 2055): Atomically precise 3d-printers stacking atoms on atoms to build nanomachines. They can create the best products possible, but they are also relatively slow.
Nanofactories (2035, 2045, 2055): Nanofactories assemble atoms into the right configurations to create bigger standardized blocks, which are then arranged into even bigger blocks, and so on, out of which usable products are made. They work faster than atomic printers, but don’t have quite their perfect product quality (which isn’t really needed in most cases).
Advanced nanobots (2035, 2050, 2060): Nano-scale robots with seriously powerful AI fulfilling all kinds of functions within the body and in other systems. Usually, the are not self-replicating, because they are built by atomic printers.
Macroscopic nanobot swarms (2040, 2055, 2065): Self-replicating nanobots sticking together to form all kinds of macroscopic structures. They can be used to quickly create macroscopic machines, or avatars, or furniture. In practice, this kind of technology comes closest to the “Seed” technology from “Diamond Age”.
Replicators (2045, 2060, 2070): The technology inspired by Star Trek that provides a quick alternative to the slow atomic printers. Replicators use matter beams to create products with roughly atomic precision. There’s a trade-off between speed and quality: The faster you print your product, the less you can be sure that you have exactly the right atoms in exactly the right spot. A replicator is usually a box that creates a vacuum within itself in order not to get problems with air molecules interfering with the construction process.
Dispensers (2055, 2070, 2080): Dispensers are like replicators, but they simply project their matter means outwards to the location where the desired product should be created. They will create a temporary vacuum using (plasma) force fields between themselves and the target location (unless they work in space, in which case that step is unnecessary). Towards the end of the 21st century handheld dispensers will be used, or dispensers attached to one’s body. They gather their building materials via feeding beams. So, dispensers can quickly dispense objects that are vastly bigger than the dispensers themselves.
Materializers (2070, 2085, 2095): Materializers are about the craziest version of nanotechnology available. They use about all of the technologies above, and then some, to virtually materialize objects seemingly out of thin air. Materializers are so miniaturized that they are essentially invisible. You just want something to be there, and the next second it’s actually there. It looks like magic, but actually uses the most hardcore technology there is. Materializers are extremely fast and precise, but not necessarily the most energy efficient way to create things, so the older technologies will still have their use cases.